Introduction

1. Overview

From 16 to 22 July 2024, the Korean Peninsula experienced an extreme rainfall event caused by a quasi-stationary monsoon front persisting over the central and southern regions. Several locations recorded hourly precipitation exceeding 100 mm, marking some of the highest values in national records and significantly surpassing July climatological averages. Despite its brief duration, the event’s intensity and spatial concentration resulted in substantial hydrometeorological impact.



2. Research Necessity

High-intensity, short-duration rainfall events of this nature pose considerable challenges to urban infrastructure and emergency response systems. They also underscore current limitations in understanding the interplay between large-scale atmospheric circulation, mesoscale dynamics, and anthropogenic climate change. A detailed examination of the July 2024 event provides a valuable opportunity to evaluate forecasting capabilities and improve hazard assessment frameworks.



3. Research Objectives

The primary objectives of this study are to:
(1) Analyze the synoptic and upper-level mechanisms responsible for sustaining the monsoon front;
(2) Compare observed rainfall with 1991–2020 climatology to assess statistical anomalies and return periods;
(3) Apply extreme-value theory to estimate the probability of similar events under current climate conditions;
(4) Evaluate the predictive performance of national (KMA LDAPS) and global (ECMWF IFS) numerical models to inform both short-term forecasting and long-term risk management.